Monitoring zone

Market radar and research views.

MONITORING

MONITORING is the region, not the open deal. The open deal is still in the URL, and one button can jump back to the curve terminal.

Market radar and research

Routes	/workspace/market-radar and /workspace/research
Sidebar	Market Radar, and Research under KNOWLEDGE
Default for	Research analyst (market radar)
Same component	MarketIntelligenceView

Purpose. A morning note on BEAC, treasury auctions, and BVMAC, plus a short list of rate moves that sit far from their recent average.

What it does. Both routes open on the tab Brief du matin. Research does not switch to a hidden “briefs” tab. defaultSubTab="briefs" only flips a header flag.

	Market radar	Research
Eyebrow	Marchés · CEMAC	Recherche · CEMAC
Title	Radar de marché	Veille et recherche
Detail	Official surveillance of BEAC, BVMAC, and national treasuries. An anomaly is a move beyond two standard deviations.	Same detail

The action Courbes souveraines goes to the fixed-income terminal.

Headline metrics and tabs hydrate from GET /api/locus/market (bulletins, observations, auctions, curves). Ingest writes via POST /api/market/ingest (financial:write or tenant:manage). A fresh tenant sees empty states until data is ingested — there is no permanent SEEG/demo radar pack in the product path.

Tabs:

1. Brief du matin. Badge 08:00 AM SYNTHÈSE QUOTIDIENNE. The date is “generated at 08:00 UTC on today’s date,” formatted in French. The executive summary interpolates that date and the 5% policy rate, then states that Gabon’s 3-year OTA auction widened by +35 bp with cover of 1.10x. Three sections follow, each with one source button: BEAC monetary policy (TIAO 5%, marginal facility 6.75%, deposit facility 0%, surplus liquidity in Douala and Libreville), primary auctions (Cameroon 26-week BTA covered at 215% and a 4.78% average rate, Gabon 3-year at 6.65% marginal and 1.10x, Congo 5-year at 7.12%), and BVMAC (secondary turnover 485 million FCFA, plus the SEEG bridge of 53.4 million euros and the 2031 bond under COSUMAF review). Evidence buttons do nothing unless a document opener is passed in. This page does not pass one.

2. Anomalies (2). Title says deviations beyond 2.0σ. The button opens the curve terminal. Cards are hardcoded, not the output of detectAnomaly():

   • Gabon 3-year auction yield, severity INVESTIGATION_SIGNAL, z-score +2.41σ, observed 6.65%, mean 6.12%, sigma 0.22%, cover 1.10x.
   • Cameroon bid-to-cover, severity WATCH, z-score +2.5σ, observed 2.15%, mean 1.45%, sigma 0.28%. The observed value is a cover ratio shown with a percent sign in the card.

3. Mouvements de taux. Three auction rows, filterable by ALL, CMR, GAB, COG, TCD. Chad matches nothing.

   Issuer	Instrument	Tenor	Date	Limit rate	Average rate	Cover	Move	Status
   CMR	BTA	0.5 year	2026-04-01	4.85%	4.78%	2.15x	+8 bp	Normal
   GAB	OTA	3 years	2026-04-02	6.65%	6.55%	1.10x	+35 bp	Anomaly > 2σ
   COG	OTA	5 years	2026-03-28	7.20%	7.12%	1.45x	−10 bp	Normal

4. Sources officielles. Four ingested documents, each with a full SHA-256 and status INGESTÉ & VÉRIFIÉ: a BEAC auction bulletin, a BVMAC official list, a BEAC policy-rate decision, and a Cameroon official-journal decree on bond issues.

detectAnomaly(), if called, would mark |z| ≥ 3 as an investigation signal and |z| ≥ 2 as a watch. The page does not call it. The cards are the seed the service returns from getRecentAnomalies().

Terms.

• Brief du matin. A one-page note a research desk publishes before the market is busy. The 08:00 badge is the product’s publishing slot.
• Sigma (σ) and z-score. Sigma is the historical standard deviation of the series. Z = (today − average) / sigma. +2.41σ means this Gabon auction was 2.41 typical deviations above the 6.12% average. The page’s rule of thumb is that beyond 2σ you investigate. It is a screen, not a trading signal by itself.
• Taux limite / taux marginal. The cutoff yield at which the auction stopped accepting bids. Taux moyen pondéré (TMP) is the average yield of the accepted bids, weighted by size. The marginal rate is usually worse than the average.
• Couverture (B/C). Bid-to-cover, same idea as on the curve ledger.
• Anomalie. On this page, a statistical outlier in an auction, not a document contradiction.
• Veille. Monitoring of official sources. Research is the same screen with a research header, so a “research” workflow here means reading the brief and the sources, not a separate library.
• SHA-256 on a source. The fingerprint of the official PDF the sentence claims to come from. The hashes in the seed are identifiers, not hashes computed in the browser from a downloaded bulletin.
• Surliquidité. Banks holding more central-bank reserves than they need. The brief says that surplus is uneven and concentrated in Douala and Libreville, which is why Cameroon bill auctions can be heavily oversubscribed.
• Inflation −40 bp. The macro card’s change in the inflation rate, in basis points, not a bond spread.

Business value. A research analyst and a portfolio manager need to know, before they price SEEG or bid a treasury auction, whether the sovereign curve just moved for a statistical reason. A weak Gabon cover (1.10x) and a +35 bp jump is a reason to demand more spread on any Gabon credit, including a utility. The decision is whether today’s move is noise or a change in the reference curve the structuring tab uses.

Use case. Read the brief’s Gabon bullet, open Anomalies, confirm +2.41σ and 1.10x cover, then Ouvrir dans le Terminal Taux and look at Gabon’s 3-year point on the curve. Use Sources if you need the bulletin name and hash to cite in a memo. The Research sidebar item is the same path with the title Veille et recherche, for people whose job is the note rather than the alert.

Next. Sovereign curves. Institutional memory, if you want the last time a Gabon credit was approved in a similar rate environment.

---